Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
